MATH 464/564 Probability II (Winter 2021)



Instructor: Yevgeniy Kovchegov
e-mail: kovchegy @math. oregonstate.edu
Office Hours: MW 5-6 or by appointment, via Zoom



Meets: live via Zoom MWF 11:00 am - 11:50 am, or prerecorded.

Grading scheme: Homework 60%, Online quizzes 40%

Textbooks:
(1) Charles M. Grinstead and J. Laurie Snell, Introduction to Probability available as a FREE e-book at http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/probability_book/book.html
A hard copy of the textbook can be acquired at bookstores such as Amazon.

(2) Mark Huber, Probability: Lectures and Labs available as a FREE e-book at https://www.markhuberdatascience.org/probability-textbook
A hard copy of the textbook can be acquired at bookstores such as Amazon.

Prerequisites: MTH 463/563 and MTH 341. A minimum grade of C- is required in MTH 463/563 and MTH 341.

Syllabus:  PDF file

Homework:   The homework assignments will need to be submitted in PDF format via Canvas and before the respective deadline. Late homework will not be accepted.

Homework #1 (due Monday, January 25):  HW 1 (PDF)

Homework #2 (due Monday, February 8):  HW 2 (PDF)

Homework #3 (due Monday, February 22):  HW 3 (PDF)

Homework #4 (due Monday, March 8):  HW 4 (PDF)

Schedule:
Monday, January 4  Joint probability mass function. Joint probability density function. Independent random variables. Sums of random variables.   Huber: Chapter 13   Lectures 1-6 slides (PDF)
Wednesday, January 6  Sums of random variables. Gamma and beta random variables. Examples.   Grinstead and Snell: Sections 7.1 and 7.2   Huber: Chapter 13   Lectures 1-6 slides (PDF)
Friday, January 8  Gamma and beta random variables. Poisson process.   Grinstead and Snell: Sections 7.1 and 7.2   Huber: Chapters 13 and 21   Lectures 1-6 slides (PDF)
Monday, January 11  Poisson process. Marginal distributions from joint distribution.   Grinstead and Snell: Sections 7.1 and 7.2   Huber: Chapters 13 and 21   Lectures 1-6 slides (PDF)
Wednesday, January 13  Marginal distributions from joint distribution. Expectations of functions of random variables.   Grinstead and Snell: Sections 7.1 and 7.2   Huber: Chapters 13 and 23   Lectures 1-6 slides (PDF)
Friday, January 15  Covariance and correlation.   Huber: Chapters 14 and 15   Lectures 1-6 slides (PDF)
Wednesday, January 20  Covariance and correlation. Multivariate normal distribution.   Huber: Chapters 14, 15, and 16   Lectures 7-11 slides (PDF)
Firday, January 22  Covariance and correlation. Multivariate normal distribution.   Huber: Chapters 15, 16, and 30   Lectures 7-11 slides (PDF)
Monday, January 25  Multivariate normal distribution.   Huber: Chapter 30   Lectures 7-11 slides (PDF)
Friday, January 29  Multivariate normal distribution.   Huber: Chapter 30   Lectures 7-11 slides (PDF)
Monday, February 1  Multivariate normal distribution. Indicator variables.   Huber: Chapter 30   Lectures 7-11 slides (PDF)
Wednesday, February 3  Indicator variables. Conditional distributions.   Huber: Chapter 12   Lectures 12-17 slides (PDF)
Friday, February 5  Conditional distributions. Conditional expectation.   Huber: Chapters 12 and 24   Lectures 12-17 slides (PDF)
Monday, February 8  Conditional expectation. Wald's equation. Conditional variance.   Huber: Chapters 12 and 24   Lectures 12-17 slides (PDF)
Wednesday, February 10  Conditional variance. The law of total variance. Variance of a random sum of random variables.   Huber: Chapters 12 and 24   Lectures 12-17 slides (PDF)
Friday, February 12  Conditional expectation as a projection. The law of total variance via Pythagorean Theorem.   Huber: Chapters 12 and 24   Lectures 12-17 slides (PDF)
Monday, February 15  Conditional distributions and randomization formulas. Moment generating functions.   Huber: Chapters 12 and 17   Lectures 12-17 slides (PDF)
Wednesday, February 17  Moment generating functions.   Grinstead and Snell: Sections 10.1 and 10.3   Huber: Chapter 17   Lectures 18-24 slides (PDF)
Friday, February 19  Moment generating functions. Examples.   Grinstead and Snell: Sections 10.1 and 10.3   Huber: Chapter 17   Lectures 18-24 slides (PDF)
Monday, February 22  Moment generating functions. Proving de Moiver-Laplace Theorem via moment generating functions.   Grinstead and Snell: Sections 10.1 and 10.3   Huber: Chapter 17   Lectures 18-24 slides (PDF)
Wednesday, February 24  Proving Central Limit Theorem via moment generating functions.   Grinstead and Snell: Sections 10.1 and 10.3   Huber: Chapter 17   Lectures 18-24 slides (PDF)
Friday, February 26  Proving Central Limit Theorem via moment generating functions. Probabilistic inequalities. One-sided Chebyshev inequality.   Grinstead and Snell: Sections 10.1 and 10.3   Huber: Chapter 17   Lectures 18-24 slides (PDF)
Monday, March 1  Probabilistic inequalities. Chernoff bound. Characteristic functions. Generating functions.   Grinstead and Snell: Sections 10.1 and 10.3   Huber: Chapters 17, 25, and 26   Lectures 18-24 slides (PDF)
Wednesday, March 3  Chernoff bound. Jensen's inequality.   Grinstead and Snell: Sections 10.1 and 10.3   Huber: Chapters 17, 25, and 26   Lectures 18-24 slides (PDF)
Friday, March 5  Chernoff bound. Jensen's inequality. Characteristic functions. Generating functions.   Grinstead and Snell: Sections 10.1 and 10.3   Huber: Chapters 17, 25, and 26   Lectures 25-28 slides (PDF)
Monday, March 8  Characteristic functions. Generating functions. Branching process.   Grinstead and Snell: Chapter 10   Huber: Chapter 17   Lectures 25-28 slides (PDF)
Wednesday, March 10  Branching process.   Grinstead and Snell: Chapter 10   Huber: Chapter 17   Lectures 25-28 slides (PDF)
Friday, March 12  Size biasing. Functions of random variables.   Lectures 25-28 slides (PDF)